事象の主体と振舞に注目した進展事象の統合解析法

　事故の再発防止には，過失を解析し将来に活かす事が求められている．ただ，現在の解析は，専門家が事例を深く読み解く解析が主であり，複数の事例を横断した解析は共通要因の抽出迄に留まっている．　そこで，本研究では従来の横断解析法を高度化した進展事象の統合解析法を提案する．本手法は，事故やヒヤリハット等事例の進展事象を主体と振舞という単位のキーワードに分離し，同一の主体と振舞に該当するキーワードを連結する統合化により，事例の横断解析を可能にした．そして，事象の進展経路とその経路を辿る頻度を基に，危険同定，頻度解析，部分的なリスク解析と，その可視化を実現した．　本統合解析法をPEC事故事例423件へ適用した結果，タンクから再発しうる危険事象を8種類と同定し，頻度が高い要因は破損26 ％，腐食21 ％，高いリスクは破損3.3×10^(-2)［リスクランク／年］，破壊2.5×10^(-2)［リスクランク／年］である事を可視化できた．

　It is expected to make use of the knowledge that was extracted by analyzing the mistakes of the past to prevent recurrence of accidents. Currently main analytic style is an analytic style that experts decipher deeply the accident cases, but cross-analysis has come to an end with extracting the common factors in the accident cases. We propose an integrated analyzing method for progress events to analyze among accidents in this study. Our method realized the integration of many accident cases by the integration connecting the common keyword called as “Subject” or “Predicate” that are extracted from each progress event in accident cases or near-miss cases. Our method can analyze and visualize the partial risk identification and the frequency to cause accidents and the risk assessment from the data integrated accident cases. The result of applying our method to PEC-SAFER accident cases identified 8 hazardous factors which can be caused from tank again, and visualized the high frequent factors that the first factor was damage of tank 26 ％ and the second factor was the corrosion 21 ％, and visualized the high risks that the first risk was the damage 3.3×10^(-2)[risk rank / year] and the second risk was the destroy 2.5×10^(-2)[risk rank / year] .