007_007_016.pdf 480 KB
We have constructed a stochastic transmission model for lymphatic filariasis caused by Wuchereria bancrofti, and have analyzed its prevalence using computer simulations. In Pondicherry, India, where Wuchereria bancrofti has been spreading, the Vector Control Research Centre has carried out an integrated vector control strategy against malaria and filariasis for five years (1981~1985) with good results reported. Our study was aimed at evaluating the effect of vector control in the context of Pondicherry, and in particular the continuous effect for the post-control period. In this paper, we have used the LYMFASIM model proposed by Plaisier et al., the carrying capacity model by Rochet and the population dynamics model by us. In the LYMFASIM model and the carrying capacity model, we have modified the quantities of parameters in order to fit the models to the parasitological, entomological and epidemiological data in Pondicherry. We have combined the improved LYMFASIM model with the other models. Through simulations of our combinated model, we have compared the prevalence rate in the human population as well as the mean number of L3-larvae in the mosquito population, with and without vector control. As a result, the simulations show that the prevalence rate would be restrained for a long time even if only a small continuous effect of the vector control remains in the post-control period. However, the mean number of L3-larvae would recovered within a short time comparatively. This is because of the differences in life spans between human and mosquito as well as the incubation periods between the adult worm in the human host and L3-larvae in the mosquito vector.
Faculty of Environmental Science and Technology, Okayama University
Departmental Bulletin Paper
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