ID | 63251 |
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Author |
Murata, Atsuo
Department of Intelligent Mechanical Systems, Graduate School of Natural Science and Technology, Okayama University
Kaken ID
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Doi, Toshihisa
Department of Intelligent Mechanical Systems, Graduate School of Natural Science and Technology, Okayama University
ORCID
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Hasegawa, Rin
Department of Intelligent Mechanical Systems, Graduate School of Natural Science and Technology, Okayama University
Karwowski, Waldemar
Department of Industrial Engineering and Management Systems, University of Central Florida
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Abstract | This study investigated biased prediction of cumulative precipitation, using a variety of patterns of histories of cumulative precipitation, to explore how such biased prediction could delay evacuation or evacuation orders. The irrationality in predicting the future of cumulative precipitation was examined to obtain insights into the causes of delayed evacuation or evacuation orders using a simulated prediction of future cumulative precipitation based on the cumulative precipitation history. Anchoring and adjustment, or availability bias stemming from asymmetry of information, was observed in the prediction of cumulative precipitation, and found to delay evacuation or evacuation orders.
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Keywords | flooding of riverbanks
delayed evacuation
cumulative precipitation
asymmetry of information
prediction failure
anchoring and adjustment
availability bias
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Published Date | 2021-12-22
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Publication Title |
Symmetry
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Volume | volume14
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Issue | issue1
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Publisher | MDPI
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Start Page | 6
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ISSN | 2073-8994
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Content Type |
Journal Article
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language |
English
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OAI-PMH Set |
岡山大学
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Copyright Holders | © 2021 by the authors.
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File Version | publisher
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DOI | |
Web of Science KeyUT | |
Related Url | isVersionOf https://doi.org/10.3390/sym14010006
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License | https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
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