Dynamic allocations for currency investment strategies

This study conducts out-of-sample tests for returns on individual currency investment strategies and the weights on the universe of these strategies. We focus upon five investment strategies: carry, momentum, value, dollar carry, and conditional FX correlation risk. The performances of our predictive models are evaluated using both statistical and economic measures. Within a dynamic asset allocation framework, an investor adjusts investment strategy weights based upon results of the prediction models. We find that our predictive model outperforms our benchmark, which uses historical average information in terms of statistical and economic measures. When the Sharpe ratio of the benchmark model is 0.52, our predictive model generates economic gain of approximately 1.16% per annum over the benchmark. These findings are robust to the changes in investors’ risk aversion and target volatility for portfolio optimization.

This is an Accepted Manuscript of an article published by Taylor & Francis in The European Journal of Finance on Aug. 2022, available online: http://www.tandfonline.com/10.1080/1351847x.2022.2100715

This fulltext is available in Feb. 2024.