ID | 31586 |
JaLCDOI | |
フルテキストURL | |
著者 |
Kakio, Takeshi
Okayama University
Ito, Toshio
Okayama University
Sue, Kunihiko
Okayama University
Tanimizu, Masahito
Okayama University
Tsuji, Takao
Okayama University
|
抄録 | A simulation model to predict the survival probability of individual patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after therapy was derived from the results of various therapies and follow-up studies of 450 HCC patients. Twenty-two prognostically important variables were analyzed by Cox's proportional hazards model. The 9 significant variables that were extracted were used to build the simulation. In this model, S(t), the expected estimated survival rate for individual patient at time t (month), is calculated by the following equation: S(t) = (exp (-0.03655t) (exp [0.9479 ([portal vein invasion]-0.222) + 0.3846 ([tumor number]-2.00) + 0.2578 ([tumor size]-3.231) + 0.0742 ([loge AFP]-5.647) + 0.8184 ([metastasis]-0.036) + 0.2810 ([Child's class]-1.689)-0.7088 ([transcatheter arterial embolization]-0.578)-0.9746 ([percutaneous ethanol injection]-0.153)-0.5377 ([hepatectomy]-0.109)]) The validity of the model was assessed using a split-sample technique. This paper does not discuss the superiority or inferiority of the therapies, because some selection bias for prognostic factors among the therapies can not be completely excluded. But this model is proposed as a practical model to predict the survival of patients with HCC. |
キーワード | hepatocellular carcinoma
prognosis
multrivariate analysis
Cox's proportional hazards model
simulation model
|
Amo Type | Article
|
出版物タイトル |
Acta Medica Okayama
|
発行日 | 1993-10
|
巻 | 47巻
|
号 | 5号
|
出版者 | Okayama University Medical School
|
開始ページ | 339
|
終了ページ | 346
|
ISSN | 0386-300X
|
NCID | AA00508441
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資料タイプ |
学術雑誌論文
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言語 |
英語
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論文のバージョン | publisher
|
査読 |
有り
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PubMed ID | |
Web of Science KeyUT |