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ID 31586
JaLCDOI
フルテキストURL
著者
Kakio, Takeshi Okayama University
Ito, Toshio Okayama University
Sue, Kunihiko Okayama University
Tanimizu, Masahito Okayama University
Tsuji, Takao Okayama University
抄録

A simulation model to predict the survival probability of individual patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after therapy was derived from the results of various therapies and follow-up studies of 450 HCC patients. Twenty-two prognostically important variables were analyzed by Cox's proportional hazards model. The 9 significant variables that were extracted were used to build the simulation. In this model, S(t), the expected estimated survival rate for individual patient at time t (month), is calculated by the following equation: S(t) = (exp (-0.03655t) (exp [0.9479 ([portal vein invasion]-0.222) + 0.3846 ([tumor number]-2.00) + 0.2578 ([tumor size]-3.231) + 0.0742 ([loge AFP]-5.647) + 0.8184 ([metastasis]-0.036) + 0.2810 ([Child's class]-1.689)-0.7088 ([transcatheter arterial embolization]-0.578)-0.9746 ([percutaneous ethanol injection]-0.153)-0.5377 ([hepatectomy]-0.109)]) The validity of the model was assessed using a split-sample technique. This paper does not discuss the superiority or inferiority of the therapies, because some selection bias for prognostic factors among the therapies can not be completely excluded. But this model is proposed as a practical model to predict the survival of patients with HCC.

キーワード
hepatocellular carcinoma
prognosis
multrivariate analysis
Cox's proportional hazards model
simulation model
Amo Type
Article
出版物タイトル
Acta Medica Okayama
発行日
1993-10
47巻
5号
出版者
Okayama University Medical School
開始ページ
339
終了ページ
346
ISSN
0386-300X
NCID
AA00508441
資料タイプ
学術雑誌論文
言語
英語
論文のバージョン
publisher
査読
有り
PubMed ID
Web of Science KeyUT