ID | 54862 |
JaLCDOI | |
Sort Key | 5
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タイトル(別表記) | Method for predicting minimum air temperature in the next morning using local meteorological observation data - Improvement on minimum air temperature forecasting system utilizing the Internet -
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フルテキストURL | |
著者 |
上田 悠生
岡山大学大学院環境生命科学研究科
三島 拓也
エイト日本技術開発株式会社
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抄録 | We have developed a minimum air temperature forecasting system using local meteorological
observation data in order to prevent or mitigate the frost damage. In this paper, the correlation between the meteorological factors and the decrease in air temperature during the night was shown. Then minimum air temperature was predicted by the multiple regression equation that uses air temperature and humidity at 18:00 as explanatory variables. As the result, the root mean square error (RMSE) was 2.8°C. When the difference of air temperature between 17:00 and 18:00 was used for the prediction instead of humidity, the RMSE was 3.5°C. Next, the prediction was carried out only in clear nights, then the equation that use air temperature and humidity at 18:00 showed that the RMSE was 1.3°C. Although the predictive accuracy of the equations for clear nights is low on cloudy or rainy nights, we can forecast safely on frosty nights by using those equations in combination with the equations for all nights.
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キーワード | Minimum air temperature
prediction
frost damage
IT
multiple regression analysis
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備考 | 研究論文 環境管理工学科
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出版物タイトル |
岡山大学環境理工学部研究報告
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発行日 | 2017-03
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巻 | 22巻
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号 | 1号
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出版者 | 岡山大学環境理工学部
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出版者(別表記) | Faculty of Environmental Science and Technology, Okayama University
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開始ページ | 55
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終了ページ | 59
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ISSN | 2187-6940
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資料タイプ |
紀要論文
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OAI-PMH Set |
岡山大学
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言語 |
日本語
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論文のバージョン | publisher
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NAID | |
Eprints Journal Name | fest
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