JaLCDOI 10.18926/fest/11510
フルテキストURL 007_001_005.pdf
著者 大賀 潔生| 石川 洋文| 土井 陸雄| 石井 裕之|
抄録 In our study, we have investigated the influence of the intermediate host population density on the prevalence of Echinococcus multilocularis in the definitive host using a mathematical model of transmission. For the vole population (intermediate host) in Hokkaido, a model of population dynamics has been constructed in this paper which follows the seasonal and annual fluctuations. In the northeastern area, the vole density appears to fluctuate periodically with a 4 year cycle. The prevalence of Echinococcus multilocularis in the fox population (definitive host) can be affected by the density of vole through the fox ingesting infectious voles. Therefore we have prepared a food habit function of foxes and the logistic distribution has been proposed. The simulations which have been carried out using the mathematical model for transmission of Echinococcus multilocularis together with the vole dynamics have indicated that the prevalence in foxes is correlated and synchronized with the population dynamics of vole. In addition they have also made us recognize that it is necessary to introduce a suitable food habit function into the transmission model.
キーワード Echinococcus multilocularis food habit of foxes Hokkaido population dynamics vole
出版物タイトル 岡山大学環境理工学部研究報告
発行日 2002-03-22
開始ページ 1
終了ページ 5
ISSN 1341-9099
言語 English
論文のバージョン publisher