JaLCDOI 10.18926/fest/12819
FullText URL 13_023_033.pdf
Author Zenihana, Tomohiro| Hisakane, Naoto| Morimoto, Tomoko| Ishikawa, Hirofumi|
Abstract We carried out simulations of various scenarios for bioterrorist attacks using smallpox occurring in a virtual area set up on the basis of the census of Okayama-city, Japan, which predict the effect of control strategies against bioterrorism and the loss scale. On simulating a smallpox epidemic, we followed the method of the Individual Based Model stochastically, which can treat the population in the virtual area as individuals. Individuals have personal information, behavior patterns, and interactions among social groups. We took into consideration the influence of residual immunity due to past vaccination. We considered Traced Vaccination (TV) and Mass Vaccination (MV) strategies against bioterrorism. We investigated the effect of TV and MV strategies on the suppression of smallpox epidemics. Consequently, the TV strategy was found to have higher effectiveness than the MV strategy.
Keywords smallpox bioterrorism Individual Based Model Traced Vaccination Mass Vaccination
Publication Title 岡山大学環境理工学部研究報告
Published Date 2008-03
Volume volume13
Issue issue1
Start Page 23
End Page 33
ISSN 1341-9099
language 英語
File Version publisher
NAID 120002304844
JaLCDOI 10.18926/fest/15042
FullText URL 014_001_012.pdf
Author Morimoto, Tomoko| Zenihana, Tomohiro| Maitani, Yusuke| Ishikawa, Hirofumi|
Abstract The spread of the highly pathogenic avian influenza (H5N1) among domestic poultry and wild birds has caused global concern over the outbreak of an influenza pandemic of H5N1. The "Pandemic Influenza Preparedness Action Plan" determines the strategy against an influenza pandemic in Japan. Simulations were carried out using an individual based model (IBM). The IBM targeted a virtual area with a population of 100,000 using the demographic data of Sapporo-city, Hokkaido. The effectiveness of targeted antiviral prophylaxis (TAP), geographical targeted antiviral prophylaxis (GTAP), school closure, and pre-pandemic vaccination were explored. Moreover, this study focused on infections among children, who have a high attack rate, and analyzed the effectiveness of interventions for school-age targeted antiviral prophylaxis (STAP). Consequently, TAP, which is recommended by the "Pandemic Influenza Preparedness Action Plan", was found to have high effectiveness in the suppression of the outbreak. Moreover, this study showed the importance of intervention among children, such as STAP and school closure, to prevent the spread of H5N1 influenza.
Keywords Influenza Pandemic H5N1 Individual Based Model (IBM) Sapporo
Publication Title 岡山大学環境理工学部研究報告
Published Date 2009-03-16
Volume volume14
Issue issue1
Start Page 1
End Page 11
ISSN 1341-9099
language 英語
File Version publisher
NAID 120002307373