A stochastic model of Echinococcus multilocularis focusing on protoscoleces

The red fox (Vulpes vulepes) and the vole ( Clethrionomys refocanus) are principal hosts of Echinococcus multilocularis in Hokkaido, Japan. How protoscoleces increases in voles and the level of immunity in foxes remain unknown because of the lack of survey data, so that it is important to clarify these mecahnisms in order to develop control strategies against E. multilocularis. In this study, the growth of protoscoleces in the infected voles was approximated as the logistic curve, the level of immunity in the fox was assumed to depend on the experience of the infection with E. multilocularis, and the worm burden in the fox was assumed to be governed by the amount of protoscoleces in the vole. Our model showed that the population densities of the hosts and the level of immunity influenced the prevalence of the E. multilocularis.